Is That Expensive Course a Smart Investment or a $10,000 Mistake?

You're considering a big career investment. Maybe it's a $10,000, 6-month bootcamp to learn a trendy, high-paying skill like AI/Machine Learning. It looks like a smart move. But you're not sure if it's really your passion.

How do you decide if it's a brilliant investment or a costly mistake?

The Common (and Flawed) Approaches

1. The "Trend Chase" (Reactive Thinking)
"AI is hot right now and pays really well. If I can afford the course, it seems like a smart investment in my future".

• Why it fails: This is pure "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out). You're chasing a trend without asking the most important question: "Will I actually enjoy the daily work of this job?"

2. The "Job Prospect" (Deliberate Thinking)
"I'll research job prospects in AI, look up average salaries, and read course reviews to see if it's worth the investment".

• Why it fails: This feels diligent, but it only confirms that the field is in demand. It does nothing to confirm that the field is a good fit for you. You're checking the market, but not yourself.

3. The "ROI Spreadsheet" (Structured Thinking)
"I'll calculate the ROI: $10,000 investment plus 6 months of lost income vs. the potential salary increase. If the math works out, I'll enroll".

• Why it fails (subtly): You've made a perfect financial calculation for a life decision. Your spreadsheet has no cell for "risk of being miserable" or "cost of burnout." It's a 2D answer to a 4D problem.

A Better Way: The Systematic Approach

This decision isn't a simple math problem; it's a projection of your future. You must use Forward Time Travel to move past the initial sales pitch and project the realistic scenarios.

Step 1: Project to Month 3 (The Grind)

• The Reality: You are halfway through the bootcamp. The initial excitement is over. It's just hard work.
• The Real Questions: Am I genuinely curious about this material, or am I just grinding through to get the certificate? How is this affecting my energy, my relationships, and my finances?

Step 2: Project to Year 2 (The Daily Reality)

• The Reality: You got the job. You're working as an ML engineer.
• The Real Questions: What is the daily work actually like? Am I building something creative, or am I just cleaning data 30 hours a week? Do I feel intellectually fulfilled, or am I just chasing money in a field I don't love?

Step 3: Project to Year 5 (The Trajectory)

• The Reality: This path is now your career.
• The Real Questions: Where has this specialization led me? What doors has it closed? Am I now in "golden handcuffs"—making too much money in a job I don't like to ever pivot to something I'm passionate about? What if the AI hiring boom cools?

The "Aha!" Insight

The question isn't "Is AI a good field?" The question is "Does this specific path create the Year-5 career and life that I actually want, given my true interests and the realistic, long-term consequences?".

Your Next Move

This scenario is just one of 12 from the Systematic Thinking Scorecard.

The ability to project future consequences is one of the four key moves of a systematic thinker. To see how you score on this and the other three capabilities, download the free scorecard. It’s a 5-minute diagnostic to find your starting point for a major upgrade.