How to Choose Your Future, Not Just Your Next Step

Consider Rachel’s situation.

She was just offered a VP promotion. It came with a 50% raise, an impressive title, and a massive leadership opportunity. She accepted immediately. Her friends congratulated her, her family was proud, and she felt successful.

Three months later, Rachel was working 70-hour weeks. She was exhausted, stressed, and barely seeing her family.

Six months later, she was actively searching for a new job.

So, what went wrong?

Here is the hard truth: Rachel made a GOOD month-one decision, but a TERRIBLE year-one decision.

She chose based on how the promotion looked the day she accepted it—the salary, the title, the excitement. She failed to consider what the promotion would feel like after living it.

This is the most expensive mistake smart people make: Choosing based on the starting point instead of the destination.

Today, we are going to fix that with a systematic thinking move called Forward Time Travel. It is a method that helps you see where paths actually lead before you commit to them, ensuring you choose what compounds rather than just what feels urgent.

The Problem: Present-Moment Thinking

Rachel fell into a trap called Present-Moment Thinking. This is the habit of making decisions based on immediate appeal without realistically projecting the trajectory over time.

It’s like choosing a road trip route based on how nice the first mile looks, rather than where you will be after eight hours of driving.

Rachel compared the new job to her current situation using a "Month 1" checklist:

• Salary: $120k → $180k (Better)
• Title: Director → VP (Better)
• Team Size: 5 → 30 (Better)

On paper, the decision was a no-brainer. But she failed to project the predictable reality of her future:

• Month 3: The team she inherited has deep cultural dysfunction (predictable).
• Month 6: The raise is eaten up by childcare costs because she is never home (predictable).
• Year 1: She has traded the quality of life she valued for money she doesn't have time to enjoy (predictable).

These futures weren't unknowable. They were visible from the start—if she had used the right thinking tool.

Three Flawed Approaches

Why do we miss these red flags? Usually, we rely on three flawed mental models that obscure the truth.

Approach #1: Optimistic Projection

The Trap: "Sure, the team has problems, but I’ll fix them. I’m a good leader."

Why it fails: Optimistic projection assumes best-case outcomes. You imagine yourself as superhuman. You assume complex problems have simple solutions. You ignore human limits (like burnout) and systemic friction. You aren't seeing the realistic future; you are seeing a fantasy future.

Approach #2: Single-Timeline Thinking

The Trap: "If I take this job, [X] will happen."

Why it fails: The future isn't deterministic. When you project only one timeline (usually the one you want to happen), you miss the range of possibilities. You aren't prepared for the "Most Likely" case or the "Realistic Worst" case.

Approach #3: Linear Extrapolation

The Trap: "The job seems manageable now, so it will be manageable in a year."

Why it fails: Systems rarely work linearly; they compound. Small stressors that are annoying in Month 1 become crushing by Month 6. Excitement fades, but burnout accumulates.

The Systematic Solution: Forward Time Travel

Forward Time Travel is the practice of projecting the implications of a decision across multiple timeframes and domains before committing.

It’s not about predicting the future perfectly. It’s about seeing where different paths likely lead based on what you know now.

Here is the 5-step process to apply it to your next big decision.

Step 1: Identify Critical Timeframes

Not all decisions need the same depth. But for a major life choice like a career pivot, marriage, or relocation, you need to project three specific horizons:

• 3 Months: The "honeymoon phase" is over. Reality sets in.
• 1 Year: The novelty is gone. True patterns are established.
• 3 Years: The major life implications (health, relationships, career trajectory) are visible.

Step 2: Project Across Five Domains

Decisions don't exist in a vacuum. A career decision is never just a career decision—it ripples into your health, your bank account, and your marriage.

When you project, check these five domains:

1. Professional: Are skills developing or atrophying?
2. Financial: What is the real net gain after lifestyle costs?
3. Physical: Are energy and health sustainable?
4. Relational: Is this bringing you closer to people or isolating you?
5. Mental/Emotional: Is stress accumulating?

Step 3: Consider Second-Order Effects

Most people stop at first-order effects: "Get promotion → Make more money."

Forward Time Travel requires you to ask, "And then what?" at least five times.

• Get promotion → Work more hours.
• Work more hours → Less family time.
• Less family time → Relationship strain.
• Relationship strain → Increased stress and health decline.
• Health decline → Medical costs and burnout.

Suddenly, the "more money" doesn't look as profitable.

Step 4: Develop Realistic Scenarios

Don't just guess. Map out three specific scenarios for the 3-Year mark:

• Realistic Best Case: Everything goes right (but stay within the laws of physics).
• Most Likely Case: Some wins, some losses, core problems persist.
• Realistic Worst Case: The situation deteriorates.

For Rachel, even her Most Likely case involved 60-hour weeks and missed bedtimes. That alone should have been a dealbreaker.

Step 5: Choose Based on Destination

Finally, ask the ultimate question:

"Which 3-Year future do I actually want to live?"

Do not ask, "Which offer looks best today?" Ask, "Which destination do I want to arrive at?"

For Rachel, the "Month 1" view of the VP role was amazing. But the "Year 3" view was a life she didn't want. The better decision would have been to decline the role and negotiate a different path—not because she failed, but because she saw the cliff edge before she drove over it.

The "Aha!" Insight

Here is the shift that changes how you make decisions:

"You are not choosing between options. You are choosing between futures."

When you weigh Option A vs. Option B, you are comparing starting points.

When you weigh Future A vs. Future B, you are comparing lives.

Most regret doesn't come from bad luck. It comes from choosing a path based on the starting line, only to realize too late that you hate the finish line.

Your Next Move

Forward Time Travel is the third of the four systematic thinking moves.

We’ve covered Parallel Tracks (exploring options), Pattern Extraction (learning from the past), and now Forward Time Travel (projecting the future).

How well do you currently use these moves? Do you naturally think long-term, or are you stuck in Present-Moment Thinking?

I’ve created the Systematic Thinking Scorecard to help you find out.

The 5-minute free assessment reveals:

• Which thinking moves you already use naturally.
• Where your blind spots are causing you to make expensive mistakes.
• Your biggest opportunity for growth.

→ Take the Free Systematic Thinking Scorecard

The promotion, the purchase, the commitment—they might feel urgent right now. But you have to live with them for years. Take the time to travel forward and see if you like the destination.

Related Resources

📖 READ MORE:

• Get the Book: Your Four Moves

🎯 TAKE ACTION:

• Systematic Thinking Scorecard